Hacettepe Üniversitesi Nüfus Etütleri Enstitüsü

Hacettepe Üniversitesi Nüfus Etütleri Enstitüsü

NÜFUS ETÜTLERİ ENSTİTÜSÜ
Prof.Dr.Aykut Toros
Demographic Transition in Turkey: Landing on to Civilization
TÜRKİYE 4.NÜFUSBİLİM KONFERANSI 2015 (5-6Kasım 2015 Ankara)
1
This Presentation is Composed of Four
Sections:
I.INTRODUCTION
II.DYNAMICS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: SOME MISSED OBSERVATIONS
III.WHAT HAPPENED IN TURKEY
IV. FURTHER CONCEPTS TO BE ELABORATED
2
I.INTRODUCTION
3
John Grount 1665
Achille Guillard 1855
Alfred Lotka, 1880–1949
Frank W. Notestein1902-1983
Ansley J. Coale 1917-2002 Charles F. Westoff (hayatta)
Norman B.Ryder 1923-2009
DEMOGRAFİ’DE KALBURUN ÜZERİNDE KALANLARDAN ÖRNEKLER
Nusret H Fişek 1914-1990
Frederic C. Shorter 1923-2012
4
The Neolithic Revolution
5
𝜔
𝐶𝐵𝑅 =
𝐶 𝑎 ∗ 𝑓 𝑎 𝑑𝑎
𝑎=0
6
50
40
Binde
30
20
10
0
Source:Türkiye’nin Demografik
Kaba doğum hızı
The Koç, et.al. Chart
The Shorter-Macura Chart
The Toros Chart
7
Social Economic and Population History in Turkey
ECONOMIC
STRUCTURE
1908-1922
Wars and Revlution; Economy
without industry
1923-1929 1930-1939
MAJOR
EC. CRİSES
WARS
ADMINISTRATIVE
1940-
1946-1953 1954-1961
1945 A new experiment
Reconstruction Protective and
Clugging and
Interlud in annexing to
under open
Etatist
readaptation
economy
Industrialization e, II WW world economy
years
I.World
War
1922
Indipendence
War
Establishment
of Turkish Republic
Introcentric and externally
dependent development
1958
Decleration Of
Moratorium
1929 World
Economic Crisis
II.World
War
19771980-1988
1979 Counterattack of
1962-1976
1969
High
Inflation
A new capıtal
Crisis
1974 1978
Oil Economic
Crisis Crisis
1989-1997
Surrener to
Financial apital
and slumpered
return to
1997- 2002-2015
2002
1994 Exagerated 2001
2008
İnterest Rates Bankruptcy
Global
of commercial
Up To 400%
economic crisis
banks
1974
Cyprus Peace
Operation
1950
Korean
War
27 May
Intervation
12 March
Intervation
12 September
Intervation
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
DEVELOPMENT
PLANS
1922 Constitution
CODIFICATIONS
1924 Constitution
Law No 557
1961 Constitution
Law No 2827
1982 Constitution
Civil Law
2010 Referandum
-Def. Of Head of Family
-Acquired Property
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY
60.0
CBR
50.0
40.0
CDR
30.0
NI
20.0
10.0
0.0
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY
1iPre-Transition
2.Early Transition
60.0
3.Late Transition
4.Post-Transition
CBR
50.0
40.0
CDR
30.0
NI
20.0
10.0
0.0
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY
60.0
CBR
50.0
40.0
CDR
30.0
NI
20.0
10.0
0.0
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY
60.0
CBR
50.0
40.0
CDR
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
NI
Years
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
CBR
CDR
53,0
54,0
53,0
52,0
50,0
52,0
53,0
51,0
45,6
43,1
45,9
48,2
46,8
42,9
39,0
34,5
29,3
30,6
29,1
22,6
21,8
17,9
21,6
21,4
NI
34,0
36,0
33,0
38,0
40,0
35,8
35,0
32,0
31,4
33,9
27,0
23,5
19,8
16,4
13,5
11,6
10,3
9,0
7,9
6,9
6,5
6,4
6,4
6,4
19,0
18,0
20,0
14,0
10,0
16,2
18,0
19,0
14,2
9,2
18,9
24,7
27,0
26,5
25,5
22,9
19,0
21,6
21,2
15,7
15,1
13,8
15,2
15,0