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CLIMATIC CHANGES OF GLIDING CONDITIONS Z. ASLAN Istanbul Commerce University, Faculty of Engineering and Design, Department of Computer Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey, zaslan@iticu.edu.tr A. TOKGOZLU Suleyman Demirel University, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Isparta, Turkey, tokgozlu@fef.sdu.edu.tr ABSTRACT Thermal potential and climatic effects are examined in Central Anatolia by using longterm meteorological data. This paper presents some analyses of monthly, seasonal and annual fluctuations of rainfall rate, air temperature, wind speed, wet and dry static energy and aridity index values for the selected stations in terrestrial part of Turkey. Climatological data of monthly mean and annual total rainfall rate, mean wind speed, air temperature and evaporation observed between 1901-2001 were considered. Temporal and spatial variations of normalized values were analysed. Climatological changing effects on rainfall, air temperature, wind speed, drought risk, aridity indices, simple departure index and precipitation concentration index near vicinity of gliding school were calculated. Rainfall rate, wind speed, aridity, desertification and drought risk indices, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), map of dryness risk class and their effects on thermal potential for gliding have been analysed. Climatological changing effects on meteorological parameters were considered by comparing the normal values of parameters recorded between 1930 and 1960 with the observations between 1901 and 2001. Remotely sensed satellite data were used to select experimental sites for more detailed analyses. Desertification Risk Index (DRI) and other normalised data were compared. This paper includes some results of the research project supported by the Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Centre (TÜBİTAK). Keywords: Thermal Potential, Climatological Changing, Aridity and Drought Risk Indexes, Desertification Risk Index, NOAA-AVHRR. INTRODUCTION MATERIAL AND METHODS Data Methodology ANALYSIS Analysis of Air Temperature Analysis of Precipitation Analysis of Aridity Anlysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Time Series Analysis of Some Climatic Parameters effect on Gliding in Central Anatolia CONCLUSION Acknowledgement REFERENCES INTRODUCTION Many large and meso-scale climate change simulations for the 21st century are based on concentration of green house gasses, (Giorgi and Francisco, 2000). The role of regional climate changing on erosivity and aridity factors were investigated by using some measuring and modelling techniques, Feoli et al., (2000), Turkes (1999). In scientific researchs that associate the atmospheric water regulation and environment, and especially archieving and interpreting the rainfall statistics, meteorological data is very important. Many large and meso-scale climate change simulations for the 21st centry are based on concentration of greenhosuse gasses. Ground measuring systems and remote sensing techniques are essential for data archiving. Kogan, Forsyth and Carey, studied global drought which is the most damaging environmental phenomenon. By using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR based Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI) they try to detect water and temperature related vegetation stress occurring during drought. They showed very strong correlation between these indices and yield. Vegetation greenness impacts on maximum and minimum air temperature, and microclimate has been considered in the analysis of temperature forecasting and modelling. Vegetation cover needs to be included as a factor in surface temperature forecasting, numerical modelling, and climate change assessments. The main aim of this study is: i)to analyse climatological changing effects on thermal conditions (air temperature, surface temperature, rainfall rate, relative humidity, cloud base temperature, equivalent potential temperature, moist static energy) for gliding activities, ii)) to define aridity risk, iii) to define temporal and spatial variation of vegetation cover, iv)to define transition regions of precipitation concentration index, v) to define variation of simple climatic deviation index . For this purposes, some ground measurements of meteorological variables and remote sensing data have been analysed in time and space domains, Feoli (2000), Turkeş et all (2002), Reinhardt, (1985), Lindemann (1988), Wallington (1986). Study Area and Data Study area covers 49 different stations all over Turkey between 36°N and 420 N parallels. Total plain area is 779.452 km2. Monthly total rainfall rate and average air temperature values were considered from 1901 to 2001, New et al, (1999, 2000). Monthly mean wind speed value between 1999 and 2001 were also analysed. Together with surface measurements, remote sensing data (NOAA AVHRR, VIS and NIR) for different periods (1986-87, 19942002) have been considered. Study StudyArea Area Station Number and Height of Stations at Different Geographical Regions in Turkey STATION STATION No LATITUDE LONGTITUDE (geographic coordinates) 34 35 36 37 LATITUDE LONGTITUDE (grid coordinates) Ankara 39.95 32.88 39.82 30.52 37.87 32.50 38.72 35.48 Eskişehir Konya Kayseri HEIGHT Mean Sea Level (meter) 40.00 33.00 891 40.00 30.50 787 38.00 32.50 1031 38.50 35.50 1093 As remote sensing satellite data, LANDSAT Thematic Mapper and NOAA/AVHRR data are used for monitoring land degradation processes. The characteristics of the data used are given as below. Satellite Date Spatial Resolution Spectral Resolution Temporal Resolution LANDSAT TM 6 December 87 26 April 96 30 m (Optical) 120 m (Thermal) 0.45-2.35 (Optical) 10.4-12.5 (Thermal) 18 days NOAA/VHRR 96 / 99 / 02 Monthly Sampling 1 km 0.58-1.10 (Optical) 3.55-12.4 (Thermal) Daily twice Methodology Precipitation Concentration Index The following statistical indices define, annual precipitation deviations, (Gabriels, 1993, Michiels ve Gabriels, 1996). 12 m = Σ pi / n i=1 where, m; annual average precipitation, pi; monthly total precipitation , n; number of months in a year (12). Standard deviation of monthly total precipitation: 12 s = Σ (pi – m )2 / n i=1 To define time variation of monthly precipitation data, Precipitation Concentration Index, (PCI) values are calculated by following equation: 12 12 12 PCI = 100 . ∑ pi 2 / P2 = 100 . Σ pi 2 / (Σ P)2 i =1 i =1 i=1 Where: pi; monthly total precipitation, P; annual total precipitation, n; number of months in a year, (Michiels and Gabriels, 1996). Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) Classes, (Michiels and Gabriels, 1996) PCI Seasonal Rainfall Distribution < 10 Uniform 11 – 15 Moderate Seasonal 16 – 20 Seasonal 21 – 50 Strong Seasonal > 50 Isolated In seasonal Concentration Index, mean monthly precipitation values were estimated by using monthly data. Deviation of annual precipitation values (CV)) is given as below, Michels and Gabriels, (1996). CV = 100 (S / M ) Where, S; standard deviation of annual total precipitation. N M=∑ P/N i=1 where; N; data observation period (year) Simple Climate Departure Index (SCDI) is given by the following equation: SCDI = (P – M ) / S Mean annual total precipitation values have been normalized by using this equation. Soil Moisture Prediction Soil moisture over the western Turkey (in Istanbul) basin has been evaluated for long term data by using De Martonne’s Index (I), (Piervitali, Conte and Colacino, 1999). The index is given by the following equation: I = P / (T + 10) Where P: total annual precipitation (mm), T: Mean annual temperature (°C). De Martonne’s and Soil Dryness Class Soil Class Desert, semi desert D.M. Index I ≤ 10 Dry, (continuous irrigation is necessary) 10 < I ≤ 15 Semi Humid (irrigation is necessary) 15 < I ≤ 20 Humid, (time adjusted irrigation is necessary) 20 < I ≤ 30 Very Humid, (seasonal irrigation is necessary) 30 < I Aridity Index Aridity index (AI) is given by the following equation Türkeş (1999) Aslan and Tokgözlü (2000a,b), AI=P/PE Where P= Annual total precipitation (mm) PE= Potential evaporation (mm) Type of Area AI Arid areas 0.05≤AI<0.20 Semi-arid areas 0.20≤AI<0.50 Drysub-humid areas 0.50≤AI<0.65 Normalized Vegetation Index NDVI is the difference of near infrared (NIR, Channel 2) and visible (VIS, channel 1). Reflectance values normalized over the sum of channels 1 and 2. NDVI = (NIR – VIS) / (NIR + VIS) = (CH2-CH1) / (CH2+CH1) Class numbers change between 1 and 6, corresponding NDVI values change between 0 and >0.45. Surface characteristics are classified as open sea surface, urban, semi arid-desert, vet soil, forest, farmland and rainforests. NDVI Classes and Surface Characteristics Class No NDVI Surface Characteristics 1 0.01 - 0.05 Urban area, semi - desert 2 0.05 - 0.15 Urbanized area, dry soil, clay surfaces 3 0.15 - 0.25 Humid soil, transition region, bare soil, less vegetation 4 0.25 - 0.35 Forest, open grass 5 0.35 - 0.45 Forest, farm - lands 6 >0.45 Rain forests, high mountainous area, heavy vegetation ANALYSIS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL PARAMETERS Control Chart: VAR00002 777 663 549 VAR00002 UCL = 753,8363 435 Average = 548,9663 LCL = 344,0964 321 1 13 7 25 19 37 31 49 43 61 55 73 67 85 79 97 91 Sigma level: 3 Control chart of Rainfall rate Values in Eskisehir 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 400 500 Eskiþehir 300 Ankara 400 300 VAR00002 200 Kayseri MA(VAR00002,7,7) 100 Konya 0 ,0 97 19 ,00 91 19 ,00 85 19 ,00 79 19 ,00 73 19 ,00 67 19 ,00 61 19 ,00 55 19 ,00 49 19 ,00 43 19 ,00 37 19 ,00 31 19 ,00 25 19 ,00 19 19 ,00 13 19 ,00 07 19 ,00 01 19 0 ,0 97 19 1,00 9 19 5,00 8 19 9,00 7 19 3,00 7 19 7,00 6 19 ,00 61 19 5,00 5 19 9,00 4 19 3,00 4 19 7,00 3 19 1,00 3 19 ,00 25 19 ,00 19 19 3,00 1 19 7,00 0 19 1,00 0 19 VAR00001 VAR00001 Time Variation of Annual Total Rainfall Rate kk(mm) Values (Eskişehir, 1901-2001, Moving Average for Lag=7). Time Variation of Annual Total Rainfall Rate, (1901-2001) ESKİŞEHİR (1901-2001) Rainfall Rate (mm) 1997 1991 1985 1979 1973 1967 1961 1955 1949 1943 1937 1931 1925 1919 1913 1907 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 1901 RAINFALL DEVIATIONS ESKİŞEHİR -150 -200 -250 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SINOP EDIRNE ZONGULDAK KASTAMONU SAMSUN ISTANBUL ADAPAZARI KOCAELI BANDIRMA CANAKKALE TRABZON ORDU GIRESUN BOLU ARTVIN RIZE KARS GUMUSHANE BURSA BILECIK ANKARA ESKISEHIR BALIKESIR ERZURUM SIVAS ERZINCAN KUTAHYA 39 AFYON USAK MANISA IZMIR KAYSERI ELAZIG VAN MALATYA KONYA ISPARTA BURDUR ANTALYA SIIRT DIYARBAKIR MUGLA MERSIN GAZIANTEP ADANA URFA MARDIN HATAY 36 26 300 29 450 10 11 Monthly Variation of Rainfall Rate Values in Eskişehir Time Variation of Annual Total Rainfall Rate Deviations (mm) from Median Values, (Eskişehir, 1901-2001). TEKIRDAG 9 Months YEAR 42 8 32 600 35 38 41 44 N 750 0 100 200 300 KM Spatial Variation of Rainfall Rate Values in Turkey, (1901-2001) 12 Total Annual Rainfall Rate, (1901-1930) Annual Rainfall Rate (1961-1990) Annual Rainfall Rate (1931-1960) Annual Rainfall Rate (19961-1998) 13 Control Chart: VAR00001 12,13577 12 11,13994 11 10,14412 10 VAR00001 9 UCL = 11,9025 9,14829 VAR00002 Average = 10,1441 8,15247 43 61 55 73 67 85 79 97 91 VAR00001 Sigma level: 3 Time Variation of Air Temperature (°C, moving average, lag=7) in Eskişehir (1901-2001) Control Chart for Air Temperature in Eskişehir ESKİŞEHİR 2,0 1,0 0,5 1997 1991 1985 1979 1973 1955 1949 1943 1937 1931 1925 1919 -1,0 1913 -0,5 1907 0,0 1901 TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS 1,5 1967 31 49 1961 19 37 0 ,0 97 19 ,00 91 19 00 , 85 19 ,00 79 19 00 , 73 19 00 , 67 19 00 , 61 19 00 , 55 19 00 , 49 19 ,00 43 19 00 , 37 19 ,00 31 19 00 , 25 1 9 ,0 0 19 19 00 , 13 19 00 , 07 19 ,00 01 7 25 19 13 MA(VAR00002,7,7) 8 LCL = 8,3857 1 -1,5 -2,0 YEAR Temperature deviations from median values in Eskişehir (19012001) MAX 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1901-1930 1931-1960 VAN SIVAS MALATYA KONYA KAYSERI 1991-1998 KARS ESKISEHIR ERZURUM ERZINCAN ELAZIG ANKARA 1961-1990 1999-2001 Comparison of maximum air temperature in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia MIN 16 14 12 1901-1930 10 1931-1960 8 1961-1990 6 1991-1998 4 1999-2001 2 0 ANKARA ELAZIG ERZINCAN ERZURUM ESKISEHIR KARS KAYSERI KONYA MALATYA SIVAS VAN Comparison of minimum air temperature in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia ANKARA ESKİŞEHİR 30 1999 2000 2001 30 2002 AIR TEMPERATURE 15 10 5 0 1 12 23 34 45 2000 2001 2002 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1 12 23 34 45 -10 -10 MONTH MONTH KONYA KAYSERİ 1999 2000 2001 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1 12 23 -10 34 30 2002 45 MEAN AIR TEMPERATURE 30 AIR TEMPERATURE AIR TEMPERATURE 20 -5 1999 25 25 1999 2000 2001 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1 12 23 -10 MONTH 2002 25 MONTH 34 45 14 12 10 Eskiþehir Ankara 8 Kayseri Konya 6 0 ,0 97 19 ,00 91 19 ,00 85 19 ,00 79 19 ,00 73 19 ,00 67 19 ,00 61 19 ,00 55 19 ,00 49 19 ,00 43 19 ,00 37 19 ,00 31 19 ,00 25 19 ,00 19 19 ,00 13 19 ,00 07 19 ,00 01 19 VAR00001 Time Variation of Air Temperature, (1901-2001) MEAN 16 14 12 1901-1930 10 1931-1960 8 1961-1990 6 1991-1998 4 1999-2001 2 0 ANKARA ELAZIG ERZINCAN ERZURUM ESKISEHIR KARS KAYSERI KONYA MALATYA SIVAS Comparison of mean air temperature values in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia VAN STDEV 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 1901-1930 1931-1960 Comparison of standard deviations of temperature values in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia VAN S IV A S M ALATYA 1991-1998 KO NYA KAYSERI KARS E S K IS E H IR ERZURUM E R Z IN C A N E L A Z IG ANKARA 1961-1990 1999-2001 Linear correlation T Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya Eskişehir 1 0.83 0.74 0.93 Ankara 0.83 1 0.89 0.86 Kayseri 0.74 0.89 1 0.86 Konya 0.93 0.86 0.86 1 R Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya Eskişehir 1 0.64 0.44 0.44 Ankara 0.64 1 0.61 0.63 Kayseri 0.44 0.61 1 0.66 Konya 0.44 0.63 0.66 1 10 ESKİŞEHİR 8 12 10 8 6 AI 6 4 2 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Months 2 VAR00002 0 MA(VAR00002,7 0 ,0 97 00 19 1, 0 9 19 5,00 8 1979,00 19 3,00 7 0 1967, 0 19 1,00 6 0 1955, 0 19 9,00 4 0 1943, 0 19 7,00 3 0 19 1, 0 3 19 5,00 2 1919,00 19 3,0 1 0 19 7,00 0 0 1901, 19 1901-1930 MEAN (AI) 1931-1960 1961-1990 VAR00001 9 1991-1998 8 1999-2001 7 5 4 3 2 Variation of Aridity Values in Turkey, (1901-2001) VAN SIVAS KONYA KAYSERI KARS ESKISEHIR ERZURUM ERZINCAN ELAZIG 0 MALATYA 1 ANKARA Time Variation of Aridity in Eskişehir, (19012001) AI 6 10 5 8 4 6 3 4 2 1 2 0 ,0 97 19 00 , 91 19 0 ,0 85 19 00 , 79 19 0 ,0 73 19 00 , 67 19 0 ,0 61 19 00 , 55 19 0 ,0 49 19 00 , 43 19 0 ,0 37 19 00 , 31 19 0 ,0 25 19 00 , 19 19 0 ,0 13 19 0 ,0 07 19 00 , 01 19 0 ,0 97 19 0 ,0 91 19 0 ,0 85 19 0 ,0 79 19 0 ,0 73 19 0 ,0 67 19 0 ,0 61 19 0 ,0 55 19 0 ,0 49 19 0 ,0 43 19 0 ,0 37 19 0 ,0 31 19 0 ,0 25 19 0 ,0 19 19 0 ,0 13 19 0 ,0 07 19 0 ,0 01 19 5 4,0 3 2,5 2 1,5 0 ,0 97 19 0 ,0 91 19 00 , 85 19 0 ,0 79 19 00 , 73 19 0 ,0 67 19 00 , 61 19 00 , 55 19 0 ,0 49 19 00 , 43 19 0 ,0 37 19 00 , 31 19 0 ,0 25 19 00 , 19 19 00 , 13 19 0 ,0 07 19 00 , 01 19 0 ,0 97 19 0 ,0 91 19 0 ,0 85 19 0 ,0 79 19 0 ,0 73 19 0 ,0 67 19 0 ,0 61 19 0 ,0 55 19 0 ,0 49 19 0 ,0 43 19 0 ,0 37 19 0 ,0 31 19 0 ,0 25 19 0 ,0 19 19 0 ,0 13 19 0 ,0 07 19 0 ,0 01 19 Annual Variation of AI Values in Konya, (1901-2001) Annual Variation of AI Values in Kayseri, (19012001) MA(VAR00005,7,7) 0 MA(VAR00004,7,7) 0,0 VAR00005 VAR00004 ,5 Annual Variation of AI Values in Ankara, (1901-2001) Annual Variation of AI Values in Eskişehir, (1901-2001) MA(VAR00003,7,7) 0 MA(VAR00002,7,7) 0 VAR00003 VAR00002 VAR00001 VAR00001 3,5 3,0 4 2,0 1,0 1 VAR00001 VAR00001 Linear Correlation AI Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya Eskişehir 1 0.11 0.17 0.52 Ankara 0.11 1 0.55 0.05 Kayseri 0.17 0.55 1 0.06 Konya 0.52 0.05 0.06 1 6.50 6.00 Canakkale Izmir Edirne Tekirdag 5.50 5.00 Istanbul 4.50 Bursa 4.00 3.50 Ankara Antalya Sinop 3.00 Konya 2.50 Samsun 2.00 Giresun Antakya Gaziantep Trabzon 1.50 Rize Artvin Van AI, (1901-2001) 1.00 Aridity Index Values AI ESKISEHIR ANKARA KAYSERI KONYA 1901-1930 6.4 3.7 3.3 3.7 1931-1960 5.4 3.0 3.4 4.1 1961-1990 8.1 3.4 3.2 3.1 1991-1998 6.1 3.8 2.3 3.9 1999-2001 4.5 3.9 2.3 3.5 40 35 30 25 20 Eskiþehir Ankara 15 Kayseri 10 Konya 5 0 ,0 97 19 0 ,0 91 19 0 ,0 85 19 0 ,0 79 19 0 ,0 73 19 0 ,0 67 19 0 ,0 61 19 0 ,0 55 19 0 ,0 49 19 0 ,0 43 19 0 ,0 37 19 0 ,0 31 19 0 ,0 25 19 0 ,0 19 19 0 ,0 13 19 0 ,0 07 19 0 ,0 01 19 VAR00001 Annual Variation of DM Values, (1901-2001) Linear Correlation DM Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya Eskişehir 1 0.71 0.62 0.50 Ankara 0.71 1 0.69 0.68 Kayseri 0.62 0.69 1 0,75 Konya 0.50 0.68 0.75 1 42 42 SINOP EDIRNE ZONGULDAK SAMSUN ISTANBUL TEKIRDAG ADAPAZARI KOCAELI BURSA CANAKKALE ADAPAZARI KOCAELI SIVAS ERZINCAN BURSA KAYSERI ESKISEHIR BALIKESIR ELAZIG ERZINCAN ANTALYA MERSIN ELAZIG VAN SIIRT DIYARBAKIR KONYA ISPARTA BURDUR MARDIN SANLIURFA GAZIANTEP ADANA KAYSERI MALATYA 38 SIIRT DIYARBAKIR KONYA ISPARTA BURDUR MUGLA MUGLA ANTALYA MERSIN MARDIN SANLIURFA GAZIANTEP ADANA HATAY HATAY 36 36 26 28 30 Kurak Çöl 0 Yari Nemli 10 15 32 34 38 40 42 Nemli Oldukca Nemli 20 36 26 44 N 30 200 100 0 42 37.05 26.91 23.44 21.17 35.99 26.91 34.34 29.87 37.02 27.93 38.04 26.37 10 Yari Nemli 15 20 28.92 37.07 27.79 34.66 300 KM 56.16 31.36 38.67 25.40 36.94 29.18 32 34 36 37.94 30 22.18 23.42 23.58 28.04 47.83 22.98 15.49 34.10 27.89 25.07 23.33 17.57 19.10 25.83 28.38 36 38 40 42 44 N Nemli Oldukca Nemli 23.36 27.02 25.75 25.20 23.09 18.39 19.89 27.89 30.78 Kurak 200 25.90 38 47.35 23.10 36 Çöl 33.11 28.83 26.90 28.42 24.65 15.38 27.97 30 44 100 0 26.71 31.24 22.62 37.27 28 30 34.40 30.02 40 36.16 20.96 26.32 26.98 26 42 N 39.30 30.63 27.67 38 40 25.54 22.50 26.10 38 26.33 25.08 26.98 28.08 36 Nemli 19.74 26.33 37.59 25.44 20 24.69 22.61 25.69 34 Oldukca Nemli 38.46 25.47 30.56 15 32 27.52 55.42 31.11 34.03 29.87 40 27.80 Yari Nemli 10 42 34.00 30 De Martonne’s Index 1931-1960) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999) 25.75 25.12 Kurak 0 300 KM 25.38 20.00 28 Çöl De Martonne’s Index 1901-1930) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999) 0 ERZURUM SIVAS AFYON USAK MANISA IZMIR VAN MALATYA 38 KARS ANKARA KUTAHYA AFYON USAK ARTVIN RIZE TRABZON ORDU GIRESUN BILECIK KUTAHYA MANISA IZMIR SAMSUN BOLU GUMUSHANE CANAKKALE 40 ERZURUM KASTAMONU ISTANBUL TEKIRDAG BANDIRMA ANKARA ESKISEHIR ZONGULDAK KARS BILECIK BALIKESIR SINOP EDIRNE ARTVIN RIZE TRABZON ORDU GIRESUN BOLU GUMUSHANE BANDIRMA 40 KASTAMONU 0 100 200 0 26 28 Çöl Kurak 10 30 Yari Nemli 15 20 32 34 36 38 40 42 Nemli Oldukca Nemli N 30 300 KM 0 De Martonne’s Index 1961-1990) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999) 44 100 200 De Martonne’s Index 1991-1998) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999) 300 KM 42 SINOP EDIRNE ZONGULDAK KASTAMONU SAMSUN ISTANBUL TEKIRDAG ADAPAZARI KOCAELI TRABZON ORDU GIRESUN BOLU ARTVIN RIZE KARS GUMUSHANE BURSA CANAKKALE 40 BILECIK ANKARA ESKISEHIR BALIKESIR ERZURUM SIVAS ERZINCAN KUTAHYA AFYON USAK MANISA IZMIR KAYSERI ELAZIG VAN MALATYA 38 ISPARTA BURDUR SIIRT DIYARBAKIR KONYA MUGLA ANTALYA MERSIN MARDIN SANLIURFA GAZIANTEP ADANA HATAY 36 26 28 Kurak Çöl 0 10 30 Yari Nemli 15 32 34 38 40 42 44 N Nemli Oldukca Nemli 20 36 30 200 100 0 300 KM De Martonne’s Index 1961-1990) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999) 42 SINOP EDIRNE ZONGULDAK ISTANBULG ADAPAZARI KOCAELÝ TEKIRDAG KASTAMONU SAMSUN TRABZON ORDU GIRESUN BOLU ARTVIN RÝZE KARS GUMUSHANE BANDIRMA BURSA CANAKKALE BÝLECÝK ANKARA ESKISEHIR BALIKESIR ERZURUM SIVAS ERZINCAN KUTAHYA 39 USAK MANISA IZMIR AFYON KAYSERI ELAZIG VAN MALATYA ISPARTA BURDUR SIIRT DIYARBAKIR KONYA MUGLA ANTALYA MERSIN GAZIANTEP ADANA URFA MARDIN HATAY 36 26 29 Kurak Çöl 0 10 32 Yari Nemli 15 20 35 38 41 44 Nemli Oldukca Nemli N 30 0 100 De Martonne’s Index 1901-1998) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999) 200 300 KM 4 3 2 1 0 Eskiþehir -1 Ankara -2 Kayseri -3 Konya 0 ,0 97 19 0 ,0 91 19 0 ,0 85 19 0 ,0 79 19 00 , 73 19 0 ,0 67 19 0 ,0 61 19 0 ,0 55 19 00 , 49 19 0 ,0 43 19 0 ,0 37 19 00 , 31 19 0 ,0 25 19 0 ,0 19 19 0 ,0 13 19 00 , 07 19 0 ,0 01 19 VAR00001 Time Variation of SCDI Values, (1901-2001) SCDI (MEDIAN) 1901-1930 1931-1960 1961-1990 EL AN ER AZ ZI IG N ER CA ZU N ES R KI U M SE H IR KA KA R S YS ER KO I M NY AL A AT YA SI VA S VA N A 1991-1998 KA R 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 -0,2 -0,4 -0,6 -0,8 1999-2001 Linear Correlation SCDI Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya Eskişehir 1 0.65 0.52 0.41 Ankara 0.65 1 0.63 0.62 Kayseri 0.52 0.63 1 0.72 Konya 0.41 0.62 0.72 1 30 25 20 Eskiþehir 15 Ankara 10 Kayseri Konya 5 0 ,0 97 19 0 ,0 91 19 0 ,0 85 19 0 ,0 79 19 0 ,0 73 19 0 ,0 67 19 0 ,0 61 19 0 ,0 55 19 0 ,0 49 19 0 ,0 43 19 0 ,0 37 19 0 ,0 31 19 0 ,0 25 19 0 ,0 19 19 0 ,0 13 19 0 ,0 07 19 0 ,0 01 19 VAR00001 Annual Variation of PCI Values, (1901-2001) VA N AN KA R EL A ER AZ ZI IG N ER C A ZU N ES R KI UM SE H IR KA KA RS YS ER KO I M NY AL A AT YA SI VA S PCI (MEDIAN) 20 15 10 1901-1930 5 1931-1960 1961-1990 0 1991-1998 1999-2001 Linear Correlation PCI Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya Eskişehir 1 0.6 0.6 0.56 Ankara 0.6 1 0.57 0.68 Kayseri 0.6 0.57 1 0.64 Konya 0.56 0.68 0.64 1 42 SINOP EDIRNE ZONGULDAK ISTANBULG ADAPAZARI KOCAELÝ TEKIRDAG BANDIRMA CANAKKALE KASTAMONU SAMSUN TRABZON ORDU GIRESUN BOLU ARTVIN RÝZE KARS GUMUSHANE BURSA BÝLECÝK ANKARA ESKISEHIR BALIKESIR ERZURUM SIVAS ERZINCAN KUTAHYA 39 USAK MANISA IZMIR AFYON KAYSERI ELAZIG VAN MALATYA ISPARTA BURDUR MUGLA ANTALYA SIIRT DIYARBAKIR KONYA MERSIN GAZIANTEP ADANA MARDIN URFA HATAY 36 26 Uniform 0 29 32 Orta Mevsimsel Mevsimsel 10 15 20 35 38 41 44 Ayrik Kuvvetli Mevsimsel N 50 0 100 200 300 KM (PCI) Indexes (Michielsand Gabriels, 1996), 1901-2001 42 SINOP EDIRNE ZONGULDAK KASTAMONU SAMSUN ISTANBUL TEKIRDAG ADAPAZARI KOCAELI TRABZON ORDU GIRESUN BOLU ARTVIN RIZE KARS GUMUSHANE BURSA CANAKKALE 40 BILECIK ANKARA ESKISEHIR BALIKESIR ERZURUM SIVAS ERZINCAN KUTAHYA USAK MANISA IZMIR AFYON KAYSERI ELAZIG VAN MALATYA 38 ISPARTA BURDUR SIIRT DIYARBAKIR KONYA MUGLA ANTALYA MERSIN GAZIANTEP ADANA MARDIN SANLIURFA HATAY 36 26 Uniform 0 28 30 Orta Mevsimsel Mevsimsel 10 15 20 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 Ayrik Kuvvetli Mevsimsel N 50 0 (PCI) Indexes (Michielsand Gabriels, 1996), 1998-2001 100 200 300 KM NDVI ANALYSIS 10.04.2001 10.10.2001 10.04.2002 10.10.2002 10.10.2000 10.04.2001 10.10.2001 10.04.2002 10.10.2002 10.10.1999 10.04.2000 10.10.2000 NDVI 10.04.2000 10.10.1999 10.04.1999 10.10.1998 10.04.1998 10.10.1997 10.10.1997 10.04.1998 10.10.1998 10.04.1999 10.10.1999 10.04.2000 10.10.2000 10.04.2001 10.10.2001 10.04.2002 10.10.2002 10.04.1997 -0,1 0,1 0,5 0,5 10.04.1999 0,7 10.10.1998 0,7 10.04.1998 0,9 10.10.1997 10.08.2002 10.04.2002 10.12.2001 10.08.2001 10.04.2001 10.12.2000 10.08.2000 10.04.2000 10.12.1999 10.08.1999 10.04.1999 10.12.1998 10.08.1998 10.04.1997 YEAR KONYA KAYSERİ YEAR -0,3 10.04.1998 10.12.1997 -0,1 YEAR 10.08.1997 0,9 10.04.1997 -0,1 0,1 0,3 0,1 0,3 NDVI 0,1 0,3 NDVI 0,3 NDVI 0,7 0,7 0,5 0,5 YEAR 10.04.1997 -0,1 ANKARA ESKİŞEHİR 0,9 0,9 -0,1 21.10.2000 21.09.2000 21.08.2000 21.07.2000 21.06.2000 21.05.2000 21.04.2000 21.03.2000 21.02.2000 21.01.2000 NDVI NDVI (2000) 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya MONTH 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri 10.05.2002 10.02.2002 10.11.2001 10.08.2001 10.05.2001 10.02.2001 10.11.2000 10.08.2000 Konya 10.05.2000 NDVI NDVI (2000-2002) MONTH CENT RAL ANAT OLIA (AI-NDVI) 0,5 AI, NDVI 0,4 0,3 AI 0,2 NDVI 0,1 0 Ankara Konya Kayseri STATION Afyon Eskişehir 0 -1 ARTVIN TRABZON GIRESUN SAMSUN SINOP ZONGULDAK KASTAMONU BOLU GUMUSHANE RİZE ORDU ISTANBULG EDIRNE TEKIRDAG BİLECİK KOCAELİ BANDIRMA CANAKKALE BALIKESIR BURSA ADAPAZARI IZMIR MANISA MUGLA AFYON KUTAHYA USAK ISPARTA BURDUR ANTALYA MERSIN ADANA HATAY ANKARA ESKISEHIR KONYA KAYSERI SIVAS ERZURUM ERZINCAN ELAZIG MALATYA VAN SIIRT KARS URFA DIYARBAKIR GAZIANTEP MARDIN NDVI 6 5 15.11.2000 05.10.2000 4 3 03.09.2000 14.08.2000 07.08.2000 29.07.2000 08.07.2000 13.06.2000 2 1 10.05.2000 06.04.2000 15.03.2000 14.03.2000 02.03.2000 STATIONS 08.02.2000 21.01.2000 Variation of NDVI Values in 1987 Variation of NDVI Values in 1988 Spatial variation of NDVI values in 1995 29-04-2001 NDVI SÝNOP 42 EDÝRNE ZONGULDAK ÝSTANBULG ADAPAZARI KOCAELÝ TEKÝRDAÐ BANDIRMA ÇANAKKALE KASTAMONU SAMSUN TRABZON ORDU GÝRESUN BOLU ARTVÝN RÝZE KARS GÜMÜÞHANE BURSA BÝLECÝK ANKARA ESKÝÞEHIÝR BALIKESÝR ERZURUM SÝVAS ERZÝNCAN KÜTAHYA 39 UÞAK MANÝSA ÝZMÝR AFYON KAYSERÝ ELAZIÐ VAN MALATYA MUÐLA ANTALYA SÝÝRT DÝYARBAKIR KONYA ISPARTA BURDUR MERSÝN GAZÝANTEP ADANA URFA MARDÝN HATAY 36 26 2.SINIF 0.12 0.15 29 3.SINIF 32 5.SINIF 4.SINIF 0.25 35 0.35 6.SINIF 0.45 38 41 44 N TV IN Station R F T A S IIR U I G SE R EL A ZI K AY A TA KA R IS PA R AN A S IN Y IS A TA H M E R K U M AN SA M S K U AS N TA M O N U BU R C S A A N A KK AL E AR NDVI NDVI 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,10 0,00 1987 1988 AR T SA VIN M SU KA N S. .. BU R C SA AN ... M AN KU ISA T. .. M ER SI IS N PA R AN TA KA KA RA YS ER EL I AZ IG U R FA SI IR T NDVI NDVI 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,10 0,00 1987 1995 Station ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC PARAMETERS EFFECTS ON GLIDING 19 18 17 16 15 VAR00003 14 MA(VAR00003,7,7) 13 0 ,0 97 19 00 , 91 19 00 , 85 19 00 , 79 19 00 , 73 19 00 , 67 19 00 , 61 19 00 , 55 19 00 , 49 19 00 , 43 19 00 , 37 19 00 , 31 19 00 , 25 19 00 , 19 19 00 , 13 19 00 , 07 19 00 , 01 19 VAR00001 Time Variation of Surface Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001) 20 10 0 VAR00005 MA(VAR00005,7,7) -10 0 ,0 97 19 ,00 91 19 ,00 85 19 00 , 79 19 ,00 73 19 ,00 67 19 ,00 61 19 00 , 55 19 ,00 49 19 ,00 43 19 ,00 37 19 00 , 31 19 ,00 25 19 ,00 19 19 ,00 13 19 00 , 07 19 ,00 01 19 VAR00001 Time Variation of Condensation Level-Air Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001) 40 30 20 VAR00006 MA(VAR00006,7,7) 10 0 ,0 97 19 ,00 91 19 ,00 85 19 ,00 79 19 ,00 73 19 ,00 67 19 ,00 61 19 ,00 55 19 ,00 49 19 ,00 43 19 ,00 37 19 ,00 31 19 ,00 25 19 ,00 19 19 ,00 13 19 ,00 07 19 ,00 01 19 VAR00001 Time Variation of Equivalent Potential Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001) 1,1 1,0 ,9 ,8 ,7 ,6 ,5 VAR00002 ,4 MA(VAR00002,7,7) 0 ,0 97 0 19 1,0 9 0 19 5,0 8 19 ,00 79 0 19 3,0 7 0 19 7,0 6 19 ,00 61 0 19 5,0 5 0 19 9,0 4 19 ,00 43 0 19 7,0 3 0 19 1,0 3 19 ,00 25 0 19 9,0 1 0 19 3,0 1 19 ,00 07 0 19 1,0 0 19 VAR00001 Time Variation of Relative Humidity in Eskişehir, (1901-2001) 360000 350000 340000 330000 320000 310000 300000 VAR00002 290000 MA(VAR00002,7,7) 0 ,0 97 0 19 1,0 9 0 19 5,0 8 0 19 9,0 7 0 19 3,0 7 0 19 7,0 6 0 19 1,0 6 0 19 5,0 5 0 19 9,0 4 0 19 3,0 4 0 19 7,0 3 0 19 1,0 3 0 19 5,0 2 0 19 9,0 1 0 19 3,0 1 0 19 7,0 0 0 19 1,0 0 19 VAR00001 Time Variation of Moist Static Energy in Eskişehir, (H, 1901-2001) 40000 30000 20000 10000 -20000 YEAR Moist Static Energy, Eskişehir 99 92 85 78 71 64 57 50 43 36 29 22 15 -10000 8 0 1 M O IS T S TATIC E NE RG Y ESKİŞEHİR (DEVIATION) T C L ,T E T A ,T S -5 -10 1901 1908 1915 1922 1929 1936 1943 1950 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 DEVIATIONS (Eskişehir) 20 15 10 5 TCL 0 TETA -15 Year TS RESULTS AND CONCLUSION Analysis of Rainfall Rate The cities Adapazarõ, Bilecik, Edirne, Kocaeli, Tekirdağ, Konya and Kayseri are under the dry conditions. Annual total rainfall rate is less than 600mm. Rainfall rate values have increased in the Marmara Region, and total annual rainfall rate values would be more than 600mm in following 30 years period, Aslan et al, (2004). There is a significant evidence of this trend for α= 0.05 in Adapazarõ, Kocaeli and Istanbul. Based on long term estimations, wet conditions are expected in Adapazarõ beginning from 2003. In Black Sea Region, annual total rainfall rate values generally show an increasing trend except Kastamonu and Samsun. Analysis of Air Temperature Temperature scenarios based on the linear model in all stations show an increasing trend in the Marmara Region. It is estimated that annual air temperature values in this region would increase 0.3oC until 2030. Similar increasing trend is observed in Akdeniz Region in general. In this region, annual average air temperature values recorded between 1991-2001 are 0.2 – 2.1oC higher than temperature values observed between 1981 and 1990. In Eastern Anatolia average air temperature values also show an increasing trend. Analysis of Aridity There is no aridity risk at the southern, western and northeastern part of Turkey. In the Marmara Region, regional maximum of AI is equal to 2.99 (humid area). Thrace Part, Central and Eastern Anatolia are under the aridity risk. In Eastern Anatolia, semi–humid or dry conditions have been observed instead of humid or semi-humid conditions in recent years. Analysis of Precipitation Concentration Index Analysis show that there is a seasonal rainfall distribution in Southern Anatolia and Akdeniz Region. Other regions have a moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. Black Sea regions had a uniform rainfall distribution in the previous periods. Analysis of Regional Variation of Simple Climate Departure Index SCDI values are increased in all geographical regions, except Mediterranean Region in Turkey. The highest increasing values have been recorded in The Marmara Region and Central Anatolia. In these areas SCDI values which are greater than zero and, positive SCDI values correspond to positive departures of precipitation. In contrast SCDI values are negative in Akdeniz Region Between 1901-1930, 1961-1990 and 1991-1998, except Black Sea Region at all regions in Turkey, there are moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. At Black Sea Region, until 1990, uniform rainfall distribution was observed. Between 1931 and 1960, at South-eastern Anatolia, there is moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. In the last term (between 1999- 2001), South-eastern Anatolia, Mediterranean and Aegean Sea Regions have a seasonal rainfall distribution. In general Turkey is under the effects of moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. Analysis of NDVI Density of vegetation cover (Normalised Vegetation Index, NDVI) variations are presented in figure. In summer period, except Black Sea Region, NDVI values are low in Turkey. In general, beginning from 2000, NDVI values show an increasing trend in Turkey, but in Southern Anatolia lower NDVI values have been observed than the other regions Analysis of Climatic Parameters Effects on Gliding Surface temperature shows increasing (approximately 1,5 C) trend in Eskişehir. Time variation of condensation level temperature shows slightly increasing trend in Eskişehir. Equivalent Potential Temperature increases beginning from 2000. Moist static energy shows increasing trend, Kahya (2000). CONCLUSION This study is related with the utilisation and interpretation of some surface measurements together with the remote sensing data to explain and have some solutions of urbanization, climate changing on gliding. Acknowledgement The authors wish to thank to Dr. Filippo Giorgi (The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics ) and Eng. Lütfiye Kuşak for their supports. Input of this paper is related with a national research project supported by Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Council (TÜBİTAK, TOGTAG-Project No: 2846), and authors are very much obliged to TÜBİTAK for their financial support. REFERENCES Aslan, Z., Maktav, D., Skidmore, E. L., Feoli, E., Sunar Erbek, F., Erol, H., Berberoğlu, S., Okçu, D., Söğüt A. S., 2004: Erosion Risk Map of Turkey: Classification of Erosion Risk by Using Climatological and Remote Sensing Data, TUBITAK, Agriculture, Forestry and Food Technologies Research Grant Committee, Project No:TOGTAG-2846. Aslan, Z., and A. Tokgozlu, (2000a): “Climatological Changing Effects on rainfall Erositivty and Wind Erosion”, AGROENVIRON2000: 2nd. International Symposium on New Technologies for Environmental Monitoring and Agro-Applications”, p.265-273. Aslan, Z., (2000b): “Climate Change Scenarios: Rainfall and Wind Erosion Prediction”, AGROENVIRON2000: 2nd. 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Michiels and Gabriels, (1996), “Rain Variability Indices for The Assesment of Rainfall Erosivity in the Mediterranean Region”, Soil degredation and Desertification in Mediterranean Environments, J L. Rubio and a. Calvo eds., Geoforma Ediciones, Logrono. New, M. G., Hulme, M. and Jones, P. D., 1999. Representing 20th century space–time climate variability. I: Development of 1961-1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology, J. Climate,12, 829-856. New, M. G., Hulme, M. and Jones, P. D., 2000. Representing 20th. Century space- time climate variability. II: Development of 1901-1996 monthly terrestrial climate fields, J. Climate, 13, 2217-2238. Piervitali, E., M. Conte and M. Colacino. (1999)- Rainfall Over the Central-Western Mediterranean Basin in the Period, 1951- 1995.II. Precipitation Scenarios. Nuovo Cimento C. 22C. 5. pp. 649 - 661. Reinhardt, M. E., 1985: “Fallstudien zu Flussmessungen entlang einer Tiefflugstacke Südlich von München DFVLR-Mitt. 85-04, p. 69-79. Turkeş, M., (1999): “Vulnerability of Turkey to Desertifiation with Respect to Precipitation and Aridity Conditions”, Tr. J. of Engineering and Environmental Science, Vol. 23, p. 363-380. Wallington, C. E., (1986): “Meteeorology for Glider”, pp. 331, John Murray Ltd., London.
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