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6>
Hasan , Zoran Grubiand Edo Duran
Belgrade Banking Academy
Symposium
IMPROVING THE ECONOMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN TURKEY AND SERBIA
Belgrade, 25. februar 2014.
™Area: Total 88,361 km2
™Population: 7.12 million (without Kosovo)
™Currency: Dinar (RSD)
™Capital: Belgrade, population 1.6 million
™Time zone: CET (UTC+1)
6
Human
Rest
orestry and
health
30%
fishing
and
and fishing
13%
social
9%
Agriculture, f
Rest
31%
Real
Agriculture,
forestry
work
Real
activities
Economy
6%
25%
Economy
26%
Human
health and
Construction
activities
6%
Transportati
on and
storage
5%
Constructio
Transportat
social work
Information Financial Wholesale
and retail
and
and
trade
communicati insurance
7%
on
activities
4%
2%
6%
Structure in 2003
ion and
storage
5%
n
Information
and
communica
tion
5%
Wholesale
Financial
and retail
and
trade
insurance
11%
5%
activities
4%
Structure in 2013
6
Growt rates of industrial production
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
-5,0%
-10,0%
-15,0%
IP
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-3,0%
7,1%
0,8%
4,7%
3,7%
1,1%
-12,1%
2,9%
2,1%
-2,9%
5,5%
-6,8%
Growth rates of agiculture produciton
25,00%
20,00%
15,00%
10,00%
5,00%
0,00%
-5,00%
-10,00%
-15,00%
-20,00%
2003
Seri 1 -7,20%
6
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
19,50%
-5%
-0,30%
-8%
8,50%
1%
-0,60%
0,90%
-17,50
22,10%
1,50%
Unemplyment rate
35,00%
30,00%
25,00%
20,00%
15,00%
10,00%
5,00%
0,00%
2003
Formal
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
27,80% 25,90% 26,80% 27,80% 26,80% 24,60%
2009
26%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
26,90% 27,70% 28,60% 29,50%
according to survey 14,60% 18,50% 20,80% 20,90% 18,10% 13,60% 16,10% 19,20%
23%
22,40% 20,10% 16,80%
Unemployment structure according to educational level in
2013
1% 2%
11%
16%
6%
Without education
Primary school-not completed
Primary school
Secondary school
High schools
Faculty, academy and higher school
64%
6
Net earnings, real growth rate
25,00
20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00
0,00
-5,00
Seri 1
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
13,60
10,10
6,40
11,40
19,50
3,90
0,20
0,70
0,20
1,10
-1,50
-0,30
Inflation
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Seri 1
6
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
7,8
13,7
17,7
6,6
10,1
6,8
8,1
6,1
11,1
12,2
2,2
2,90
External trade balance, mln USD
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Exports
2.756
3.523
4.482
6.428
8.825
10.974
8.344
9.795
11.779
11.230
14.614
14843
Imports
7.477
10.753
10.461
13.172
18.554
24.331
15.807
16.470
19.862
18.925
20.543
20649
6
Exports-imports ratio (%)
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Exports-imports ratio (%) 36,9% 32,8% 42,8% 48,8% 47,6% 45,1% 52,8% 59,5% 59,3% 59,3% 71,1% 71,9%
Trade deficit (million USD)
0
-2.000
-4.000
-6.000
-8.000
-10.000
-12.000
-14.000
-16.000
2003
Seri 1 -4.721
200
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-7.230
-5.979
-6.744
-9.729
-13.35
-7.463
-6.675
-8.083
-7.695
-5.929
-5806
Largest Imports of Goods by Countries in 2013
12%
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
31%
17%
GERMANY
ITALY
HUNGARY
18%
22%
SLOVENIA
Largest Exports of Goods by Countries in 2013
17%
26%
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
17%
ROMANIA
22%
18%
GERMANY
MONTENEGRO
201
Main Export Products in 2013
10%
11%
37%
Road vehicles
11%
Electrical machinery and
appliances
Vegetables and fruits
12%
Grains
19%
Metal
Metal products
Foreign direct investment (milion EUR)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
FDI milion EUR
202
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
773
1250
3322
1821
1824
1373
860
1827
669
1228
I-XX
2014
1046
Structure of FDI in 2013
Rest
Pharmaceutical Industry
Construction
Tobacco Industry
Real Estate
Oil and gas
Automobile Industry
Retail
Telecommunications
Food Industry
Financial Services
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
20,00%
Structure of FDI in 2013
Rest
Pharmaceutical Industry
Construction
Tobacco Industry
Real Estate
Oil and gas
Automobile Industry
Retail
Telecommunications
Food Industry
Financial Services
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
20,00%
4>
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
4
The sector with the largest number of
realized investment projects
From 2013 components for the automotive
industry are the major Serbian export product
A tradition for over 70 years
Qualified, educated and available workforce
with a competitive labour costs
Developed infrastructure
One of the most promising sectors
Quality agricultural land - investment opportunities
in primary production
Over 30% of raspberries on the world market
comes from Serbia
A great possibility of exporting in Russia and
Southeast Europe duty-free
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
Among the most important industries in Serbia
with the longest tradition
Most companies are export oriented
Manufacturers with internationally recognized and
recognizable quality products and competitive
prices
Growing sector by the number of investment
projects
Highly qualified workforce with a competitive
labour costs
Quick and easy access to key markets - EU, East
Europe, Middle East
One of the major export sectors of Serbia
Investment projects in this sector have created
more than 10,000 new jobs
A large number of qualified workforce available
The moderate rate of remuneration contributes to
economical production
A large number of "Brownfield" objects.
205
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
4
The strategic sector for Serbia
Long tradition continued with investors such as
Siemens, Eaton, Panasonic, Gorenje, etc.
The development of innovative technology parks
Strong university centres in Belgrade, Nis and Novi
Sad
The high quality of raw materials
A long tradition in wood processing and supplying
international customers
The export, duty free, to the markets of Russia, the
EU and South Eastern Europe
A growing trend in the production of massive
furniture
Great opportunities in sawn material, the projected
production of wood, furniture and paper
production
The furniture industry is one of the few who
recorded a surplus of over 100 million euros
Current account deficit, % of GDP
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Current account deficit
2003.
2004.
2005.
2006.
2007.
2008.
2009.
2010.
2011.
2012
2013
-9,3
-13,7
-9,7
-12,3
-17,2
-20,9
-6,2
-6,3
-8,6
-11,3
-6,1
Total public debt as a percentage of GDP
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
PD
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
66,9%
55,3%
52,2%
37,7%
30,9%
29,2%
34,8%
44,5%
48,2%
60,2%
63,8%
72,0%
4
FX rate
140,0000
120,0000
100,0000
80,0000
60,0000
40,0000
20,0000
RSD/EUR
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0,0000
RSD/USD
Forign reservs (mil EUR)
14.000,0
12.000,0
10.000,0
8.000,0
6.000,0
4.000,0
2.000,0
0,0
Seri 1
4
2003.
2004.
2005.
2006.
2007.
2008.
2009.
2010.
2011.
2012.
2013.
XI 2014.
3.504,
3.698,
5.468,
9.538,
10.855
9.081,
12.026
11.685
12.867
11.972
12.102
11.819
75.7 %
Banks
owned by
domestic
entities
25%
52.9 %
Banks
owned by
foreign
entities
75%
5 largest banks
10 largest banks
Indicators of
concentration
Ownership structure
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Banca Intesa A.D.
Raiffeisen Banka A.D.
Unicredit Bank Srbija
Komercijalna banka
Beograd
Beograd
A.D. Beograd
A.D. Beograd
Eurobank A.D. Beograd
4
23
20
19
19
19
Hungary
Poland
Czech Republic
16
15
10
Bulgaria
Serbia
Romania
Croatia
Slovakia
27
25
24
23
21
210
20
20
20
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Slovakia
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Poland
Romania
Croatia
Hungary
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